NBC/Wall Street Journal Poll finds troble for GOP

Reported by: First Read: The day in politics by NBC News for NBC News, July 27, 2006

More of the same today will likely mean change in November, the latest NBC/Wall
Street Journal poll indicates. Three and a half months before Election Day, the
poll shows little to no movement on some key barometers, suggesting that barring
some major unforeseen event, an ominous framework for Republicans is locking in.
But perhaps even more problematic for the GOP is that the striking degree of
pessimism Americans express about the future, as reflected in the poll, is being
driven largely by the war in Iraq and by the Bush Administration itself, both of
which will extend beyond November.

The public's estimation of President Bush, Congress, and the two parties hasn't
moved much. In this latest poll, taken from July 21-24, Bush's job approval
rating is 39%, a bump of two points since our June survey, but continuing his
nearly year-long streak below 40%. Congress' job approval rating is 25%, also
up two points since June, but still well below their high this year of 33%.
Those surveyed say they'd prefer a Democrat-run Congress over a Republican-run
Congress by 10 points -- about the average margin in our poll this year. The
percentages of people who say their vote is meant to send a signal of support
for Bush and a signal of opposition to Bush remains unchanged since last month.
And in two different versions of the same question, almost exactly the same
percentages say they are more concerned that Republicans will retain control of
Congress and there won't be enough change than they are concerned that Democrats
will win control of Congress and there will be too much.

By this point in the election cycle, Republicans will find it "pretty hard to
change the dynamic," NBC/Journal co-pollster Peter Hart (D) said, "especially
when you consider that the last five weeks have been aimed at changing the
dynamics." During that time, the GOP levied its "cut and run" onslaught against
Democrats over Iraq; House Republicans stood up to Bush and their Senate
colleagues to demand that border security be addressed before a new guest-worker
plan; and the party leadership held a series of votes on social issues that were
intended to inspire their base. "The events that happen on the front page count
a lot more than the events that happen on the political page," Hart suggested.

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